Talk About Marriage banner

141 - 160 of 203 Posts

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
24,201 Posts
Ikaika, as someone who seems to have a lot of expertise, I'd be interested in your comment. My take has been that everyone will eventually be exposed to the virus and "catch" it, but for some people, that may mean no symptoms at all. What we are trying to do is manage the rate at which this happens. We are not (or are no longer) trying to prevent it from spreading to everyone. It will. Am I right, or not?
The current stay in place orders are to prevent it from spreading, i.e., so that we don’t have everyone be exposed, as you suggest will eventually happen. If we had done little to mitigate it, it is possible that we would have attained a penetrance of about 80% in a very short time period, weeks (not month) based no the viral R0. This would have meant (in the US) 272 million infected. We think about 10% would be asymptotic, 70% could recover at home and 30% would require aggressive medical attention. We could easily ascertain this based on the CDC statistics for the many comorbidities we have here along with the percentage of healthy that will have severe effects from the virus.

In the US (I know the UK has their own issues), that would be close to 82 million requiring medical care. Under the best of conditions we would have fatalities around around 3%, that is around 8 million in a short turn around.

Thus if everyone eventually gets exposed, those number may not necessarily change, only that it would be over a longer period of time. So, we really want to avoid everyone eventually being exposed.

My point is that following mitigation, we can do spot containments to avoid mass exposure. We need to carry this out until we have a vaccine. Part of keeping the virus from taking advantage vectors willing to come in close contact with the non-infected also put isolation pressure on this RNA virus. This could force mutations. Unlike the movies, most mutations are more fatal to the virus than the host.

There are plenty of reasons to maintain the physical distancing and good hygiene. I know it sucks and some folks are hurting economically, but the alternative would have just as bad of an economic outcome while also awful medical outcomes.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,131 Posts
We need to carry this out until we have a vaccine.
Thanks! Yes, I guess I forgot about the "until we have a vaccine" factor in my reasoning.

Thus if everyone eventually gets exposed, those number may not necessarily change, only that it would be over a longer period of time. So, we really want to avoid everyone eventually being exposed.
My question was really whether that can be avoided. I guess because a vaccine is coming, maybe we can.

Another thing I've heard is that this mutates more slowly than flu, hence vaccines are easier. I hope that's true.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
24,201 Posts
Thanks! Yes, I guess I forgot about the "until we have a vaccine" factor in my reasoning.



My question was really whether that can be avoided. I guess because a vaccine is coming, maybe we can.

Another thing I've heard is that this mutates more slowly than flu, hence vaccines are easier. I hope that's true.
RNA viruses tend to be less stable, so any pressures make them mutate in short order.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
Discussion Starter #144
The current stay in place orders are to prevent it from spreading, i.e., so that we don’t have everyone be exposed, as you suggest will eventually happen. If we had done little to mitigate it, it is possible that we would have attained a penetrance of about 80% in a very short time period, weeks (not month) based no the viral R0. This would have meant (in the US) 272 million infected. We think about 10% would be asymptotic, 70% could recover at home and 30% would require aggressive medical attention. We could easily ascertain this based on the CDC statistics for the many comorbidities we have here along with the percentage of healthy that will have severe effects from the virus.

In the US (I know the UK has their own issues), that would be close to 82 million requiring medical care. Under the best of conditions we would have fatalities around around 3%, that is around 8 million in a short turn around.

Thus if everyone eventually gets exposed, those number may not necessarily change, only that it would be over a longer period of time. So, we really want to avoid everyone eventually being exposed.

My point is that following mitigation, we can do spot containments to avoid mass exposure. We need to carry this out until we have a vaccine. Part of keeping the virus from taking advantage vectors willing to come in close contact with the non-infected also put isolation pressure on this RNA virus. This could force mutations. Unlike the movies, most mutations are more fatal to the virus than the host.

There are plenty of reasons to maintain the physical distancing and good hygiene. I know it sucks and some folks are hurting economically, but the alternative would have just as bad of an economic outcome while also awful medical outcomes.
How come we aren’t didn’t have to deal with SARS and MERS?
Wasn’t it containment which stopped the spread?
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
24,201 Posts
How come we aren’t didn’t have to deal with SARS and MERS?
Wasn’t it containment which stopped the spread?
Both of those were contained early, also travel from China was far less back then that it is now. It is not uncommon nowadays to see a lot of travelers from the points of origin traveling all over the globe. Also, SARS just died out. It is thought to have undergone a fatal mutation.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
Discussion Starter #146
As far as death rate Oklahoma keeps climbing. Almost 6% and those counts do not include those who were symptomatic but never tested, and they still have never included the deaths of some in their 20’s in that age group.

More People have died at home since the 28 year old, and the medical examiner’s still refusing to test those.
More information I see more I think death toll is higher than reported, and from the support groups those “recovered” still facing uphill battles.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,156 Posts
As far as death rate Oklahoma keeps climbing. Almost 6% and those counts do not include those who were symptomatic but never tested, and they still have never included the deaths of some in their 20’s in that age group.

More People have died at home since the 28 year old, and the medical examiner’s still refusing to test those.
More information I see more I think death toll is higher than reported, and from the support groups those “recovered” still facing uphill battles.
But 6% of what? The people that get sick enough to get tested....because most everyone doesn't get tested since they don't know they have or had it. But I bet if you gave them a blood test, many would show some antibody immunity...meaning they were exposed to it. In my unprofessional and highly ignorant guess, I'd say it's less than 1% in the US. Probably not far off the flu mortality rate.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
Discussion Starter #148
But 6% of what? The people that get sick enough to get tested....because most everyone doesn't get tested since they don't know they have or had it. But I bet if you gave them a blood test, many would show some antibody immunity...meaning they were exposed to it. In my unprofessional and highly ignorant guess, I'd say it's less than 1% in the US. Probably not far off the flu mortality rate.
6% of those tested, but as I stated,even some of those tested + in their 20’s still haven’t been added to the totals a month afterwards.

First case in this state was an at home death, but because tested after death still isn’t considered the first case.

The are parents and spouses pissed because their loved ones couldn’t get tested because they didn’t have the requisite number of symptoms who ended up dying at home Not being counted in death totals here as well.

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,491 Posts
We keep discussing testing and vaccines, but look at the mess the federal government has made of this so far. Bureaucracy at its f'd-up best. Governor Hogan (MD) went ahead and cut a deal with South Korea to get 500,000 testing kits. So Trump gets a bee in his bonnet over Hogan doing what is best for Maryland. Jeesh.

We need widespread testing to get the economy up and running. There is no widespread testing. So now we have lots of people marching in the streets protesting. I just don't see this ending well.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
Discussion Starter #151

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
Discussion Starter #152 (Edited)
Governor has removed restrictions beginning May 1st.

Some small local restaurants have announced they will not be opening for dine in on the 1st.
Will still maintain curbside and pickup only.

One tribe so far has announced they will not be reopening casinos on the 1st as they feel it’s too soon and will wait at least another 2 weeks. Said they are talking directlyto the cdc.

One business has closed a few days to relocate management to a separate office, and will reopen shop for full business on the 1st.

Another border tourist area Similar to ours has a high number of cases some travel related.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,889 Posts
One business has closed a few days to relocate management to a separate office, and will reopen shop for full business on the 1st.
Well as long as management is protected...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
263 Posts
Ikaika, as someone who seems to have a lot of expertise, I'd be interested in your comment. My take has been that everyone will eventually be exposed to the virus and "catch" it, but for some people, that may mean no symptoms at all. What we are trying to do is manage the rate at which this happens. We are not (or are no longer) trying to prevent it from spreading to everyone. It will. Am I right, or not?
I feel the same.

I posted on the other covid19 discussion about how worried I am about letting children go back to a "normal" life.
Many of parents are home with their children now, but soon they'll go back to work and children will have to go to daycare or summer camps or other places. Children do not understand or care about social distancing or personal hygiene.

I fear we'll have a second or third wave of infection once children are introduced to regular activities or school.

I don't even know how schools are going to manage social distancing from now on.

Maybe I'm the only one worrying too much.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
Discussion Starter #156 (Edited)
I had heard many people received more on unemployment that they did while working.

Boy are they.
Part of the issue, Kouplen said, is the level of unemployment benefits individuals are receiving. In addition to regular unemployment benefits, which in Oklahoma ranges from $188 to $539 per-week, unemployed workers can also receive an extra $600 per week until July 31 under the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act.

We are seeing some businesses around the state who are offering individuals their jobs back at the same pay they had before, and the individuals are turning them down because maybe they’re making the same or more with this elevated unemployment payment that we’re seeing,” Kouplen said. “I don’t blame the employees for doing that, and we’re glad they’re getting good unemployment, but the problem is we cannot relaunch the economy without workers.”
Those being paid minimum wage are making more on unemployment so some are refusing to return to work.
Oklahoma’s minimum wage of $7.25 an hour is one of the lowest minimum pay rates in the nation. Cities in the state are not allowed to establish their own higher minimum wages for workers after the Legislature and former Gov. Mary Fallin passed a law in 2014 prohibiting them from doing so. The last increase came more than a decade ago, when the federal minimum wage was increased
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
Discussion Starter #157
Apparently our state was still restricting who could be tested.

The governor encouraged an increase of testing on the same day state reopened to any who thought they may have it.

Still like to know how they could loose a whole days worth of test samples from our area.

An odd story in our local paper on cases in counties bordering us.
Seems state getting slow on updating.
Counties across the state line have more cases reported to local officials by the state and labs than the state is reporting on their website.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
Discussion Starter #158
Local newspaper finally reported on the test samples being lost from a 48 hour period from our portion of the state.
Same is also being reported by people in a neighboring state.

Due to prevalence of already disorganized, or intentional lost testing It still appears numbers are artificially low.

Some locals think tests were intentionally lost to protect areas tourism trade.

I really hope Covid19 was overhyped because if not reopening is going to spike cases.
People aren’t just going back to normal.
Younger seem to be overcompensating.

Locals were speaking of a really large group of teens in a parking lot last night gathered together.

Current official death rate in our state is 6%.

I think it’s closer to 8%.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
Discussion Starter #159
Are people going nuts in other places they’ve lifted restrictions?

It’s like 4th of July weekend.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,883 Posts
California reopened some beaches for limited activity. Some Orange county residents didn't abide by the rules of no stationary activities so the Governor has ordered their beaches closed down. It's a shame that a few selfish jerks ruined it for their neighbors. Hope their mugs get plastered on the front page of the paper.
 
141 - 160 of 203 Posts
Top