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Those who do contract the disease and survive will then have to worry about pulmonary fibrosis - scarring of the lungs. It can't be cured but can be stopped if caught in time. A 20-30% reduction in lung function has been observed.

Y'all party on.
That does it. I'm nailing my doors and window shut until this is over. :frown2:
 

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If there were food trucks handing out meals, there would be a massive close quarters line and rush, zero distancing.

I don't know the answer but after every hurricane or natural tragedy requiring hub style disbursements, people would just crush in.

The first time a military sentry had to fire a weapon for personal or group safety or rules enforcement that would make a hugely negative news report. Right or wrongly done it would get the most negative spin possible.

And not the truthful version I'm sure.
 

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I think many don’t understand the full societal ramifications. If this disease only meant hospitalization of 1% of the infected, shutting things down would be ridiculous and uncalled for at any level. We would not need the declaration of a national emergency. Our hospitals and medical centers would still be taxed, but it would be bearable.

In the end if we do (did) this right and stay ahead of it rather than reacting to it, it may only result in 0.5-1% deaths. And, the death of many, would have been those that would have succumbed to influenza or pneumonia death.

There is a reason why China put up medical centers overnight and put in place very strict lockdowns. There is a reason why physicians in Italy, Spain and other European countries are having to make tough triage decisions, based on soft lockdowns.

Many of you, if you were to contract this novel virus will likely recover at home, some with mild symptoms, others with a combination of flu and severe bronchitis-like symptoms. Some of you that are older may only need to recover at home yet a few who are younger may require medical attention. Granted, the healthier you are and the younger you are gives you the best statistical chance. But with lower respiratory viruses there are no guarantees, especially a virus that is new to our species. We don’t have a test that predict how your immune system will respond to this coronavirus. Or one that predicts your survival if infected. We only have tests that gives with a high level of accuracy whether you have been infected or not.

We have a medical system that will do everything it can to provide a chance of recovery if you are infected. But this system has limitations (capacity limitations). The only models we have for how many require medical attention are those based on experiences in other countries. This is around 10-20% of all who are infected. We also have good epidemiological models on infectious rates that are substantiated by what we have seen in other countries. Example, if you have the flu, you are most infectious when you begin showing symptoms through the time your fever breaks. If you come in contact with a group of people, likely only one in that group gets sick from you. If that person spreads it and this goes on and on. Ten iterations of this and you caused 14 people to get sick with the flu. With this virus one is infectious before and during their symptoms. If however they are in a group, based on the R0, three will be infected. Same scenario of 10 iterations later and you infected close to 60,000 people. You can play out this patient zero with each of those you infected and you can see how this infection rate takes off suddenly.

For those that suggests we just house in place the vulnerable. If we could clearly identify them, not just on age and other possible underlying conditions, but on their immune system, this does not eliminate the virus. This class of virus tends not to lend our system for long-term immunity. So, it will be with us for a while regardless if we culled the herd or took draconian actions. Of course admittedly we don’t know this for sure, but it is likely it does not based on some preliminary research data. So how long do the vulnerable shelter in place (if we could clearly identify them all)? How long will it take to co-evolve with this virus before it causes nothing more than the common cold? I don’t know, I don’t think anyone can answer that question.

Best we can do blunt the steep curve, so as not to overwhelm the medical system, flatline the infection rate for the remainder of this season, get ahead of it next season and hope for a vaccine before the third season.

I’m not an economist, but from a historical perspective, economies have adapted and changed throughout human civilizations. This may be one of those times to not just prepare, but adapt.


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that's a problem, you are not an economist, you are an epidemiologist, so you are coming at us with one perspective only (albeit a very informative one).
I could just as easily dismiss a potential catastrophe such as you just did by saying "historically, as a human race, we have always recovered from pandemics, and adapted and learned from them and advanced science because of them".

what we need is level headed multi-disciplinary thinking that takes everything into account; medical, economic, societal, and all the long term ramifications of each.

you have been pounding us for pages and pages pleading your case for the medical approach to dealing with this pandemic, and I applaud you.
your expertise and contribution to the discussion is invaluable, but it only presents one perspective.

please keep posting.
 

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If there were food trucks handing out meals, there would be a massive close quarters line and rush, zero distancing.

I don't know the answer but after every hurricane or natural tragedy requiring hub style disbursements, people would just crush in.

The first time a military sentry had to fire a weapon for personal or group safety or rules enforcement that would make a hugely negative news report. Right or wrongly done it would get the most negative spin possible.

And not the truthful version I'm sure.
You are absolutely right. Most seem to forget about how human nature really is, especially when hungry. At a certain point, the whole "working together" thing will be thrown out the window
 

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If there were food trucks handing out meals, there would be a massive close quarters line and rush, zero distancing.

I don't know the answer but after every hurricane or natural tragedy requiring hub style disbursements, people would just crush in.

The first time a military sentry had to fire a weapon for personal or group safety or rules enforcement that would make a hugely negative news report. Right or wrongly done it would get the most negative spin possible.

And not the truthful version I'm sure.
If a town is already on quarantine, and no one supposed to be out of their houses except for food or emergencies anyway on officer with common sense would just have it being delivered door to door.

That way no one could complain someone else got more than they did either.

I know even with that there could be difficulties but most could be surmounted.
 

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that's a problem, you are not an economist, you are an epidemiologist, so you are coming at us with one perspective only (albeit a very informative one).

I could just as easily dismiss a potential catastrophe such as you just did by saying "historically, as a human race, we have always recovered from pandemics, and adapted and learned from them and advanced science because of them".



what we need is level headed multi-disciplinary thinking that takes everything into account; medical, economic, societal, and all the long term ramifications of each.



you have been pounding us for pages and pages pleading your case for the medical approach to dealing with this pandemic, and I applaud you.

your expertise and contribution to the discussion is invaluable, but it only presents one perspective.



please keep posting.


I’ll keep posting if you can give me your alternative solution. Remember we are reacting and as such already behind.

We could do as you say allow the culling to happen, but this requires, we will take minimal medical action. Taking medical intervention taxes a system far beyond its capacity. We don’t just triage COVID 19 patients, but all patients. We have to decide if we allow biology to rule or decide we take immediate human intervention.

We don’t have modern medical tools (as of yet) against this novel virus. If we did we would not have this discussion.

I’m only suggesting what needs to be done based on what our society has accepted. If you prefer another solution, contact your senators and representative.


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If there were food trucks handing out meals, there would be a massive close quarters line and rush, zero distancing.



I don't know the answer but after every hurricane or natural tragedy requiring hub style disbursements, people would just crush in.



The first time a military sentry had to fire a weapon for personal or group safety or rules enforcement that would make a hugely negative news report. Right or wrongly done it would get the most negative spin possible.



And not the truthful version I'm sure.


Easier solution - most folks are already adept at online shopping. Buy your food and supplies online from local merchants and have delivery trucks (minimizes contact) deliver to your home.




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Easier solution - most folks are already adept at online shopping. Buy your food and supplies online from local merchants and have delivery trucks (minimizes contact) deliver to your home.




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Agree, but that's the obvious answer, a given for many.

I'm talking if sadly it gets worse, and then many in society folks will go right to free food trucks.
 

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Agree, but that's the obvious answer, a given for many.



I'm talking if sadly it gets worse, and then many in society folks will go right to free food trucks.


This part is not going to get worse. What will get worse it what happens in the medical centers and hospitals. This is not a toilet paper or food crisis (that part is man made), this is a medical crisis.


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Our stay in place still allows for people to purchase food. Grocery stores are still essential businesses. I assume that is the same elsewhere. One is limited to how many can enter the store and caution given to social distancing. Every day this does not happen is day zero and we extend out two weeks from there.

We either extend the season with potential medical disaster or we bite the bullet for a short period of time.


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One thing this can teach Americans is that you really don’t need to consume that many calories.

We have an abundance of calories in this country, too many.


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As can be seen from the previous link if a value us placed on life, and people have had no problems being listed as a human resource or commodity, if is continued business as usual with covid19 there will be a loss of u.s. resources in the neighborhood of $8.5 Trillion, many of whom will be more experienced doctors, managers, who have the knowledge and experience to make things run smoothly.
That's just in short term economic loss in resources.

Most small business owners are in the vulnerable age category.

Very few business owners are under 40-45.

Take those out of the equation how long will it take for others with their level of expertise to step in a find employment for those displaced workers?
Still appears in the long run letting covid19 to take its course and "cull the herd" is going to have longer harder ramifications on the economy and employment than taking measures to stop the spread now.


What Happens If the US Does Absolutely Nothing To Combat COVID-19?
On Monday, the Imperial College report on COVID-19 was released and the results are terrifying. For those who may not know, the Imperial College in London "has advised the government on its response to previous epidemics, including SARS, avian flu and swine flu," reports The New York Times. "With ties to the World Health Organization and a team of 50 scientists, led by a prominent epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies."

In a series of tweets, Jeremy C. Young, Assistant Professor of History at Dixie State, summarized what the report says would happen if the U.S. does absolutely nothing. That is, if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course. The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation... Here's what would happen:
80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust. Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.
The Imperial College then ran the numbers for what would happen if countries assumed a "mitigation" strategy and "suppression" strategy. You can read the full summarized breakdown of what happens in each scenario below, but basically the mitigation strategy flattens the curve with an actual death toll at around two million deaths while the suppression strategy has the death rate in the U.S. peaking at 3 weeks with only a few thousand deaths.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
 

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Reporting in from the front lines. Forgive me if I'm repeating stuff...been so busy I don't remember when I last updated. We, the nurses, were informed this weekend that our hospital will run out of PPE supplies in 2 days. 2 days!!!!!!!!!!!! They recommended we make our own :surprise: I now have the Senior center quilting group and many others making me homemade masks after I posted about it on Facebook and many people jumped in to help. My boyfriend has designed a mask for me made from vacuum cleaner bag material. He spent the entire weekend making them for me, stopping only for lunch each day, so I have a fairly decent supply now if I only remove it when I'm going to eat. Seems crazy to go from room to room with the same mask on but that's what they want us to do. If JACHO says boo about my tea mug at the nurse's station they can kiss my ass. 2 months ago they'd fine us for wearing an unused mask around our neck and now they want us to use the same homemade mask all day for all our patients. I feel like I've stepped into an old WWII movie where the citizens all have to band together to get the soldiers what they need, only I am a soldier in this.



It's hard to describe how I feel about all of it. I feel very appreciated and loved by so many who are stepping up and making masks, even learning to sew in order to make masks. I feel so loved and appreciated when people send me messages telling me they're thinking of me and want me to be safe and to thank me for my "service." But at the same time I feel weird about it. This is my job, it's what I do, it's who I am. I'm starting to get a clue as to how soldiers must feel when people thank them for their service too. It's just a strange feeling that I'm having trouble describing to people. Combine that with the pre-PTSD I'm having about all of it and I'm totally exhausted.



My hospital now has 2 tents set up for testing but the results do not come back quickly. Still waiting for the results of my coworker's husband's test which was done over a week ago. We still have 5 other people out on quarantine right now. And we have our first patient in labor and delivery. Poor woman is separated from her baby until her test results come back. Thankfully as a severe asthmatic I am excused from caring for her, but it turns out the patient I had all weekend is her sister in law!! So I have probably been exposed anyway. Told my kids I'm staying away from them from now on as my daughter is also asthmatic and the other two have a cardiac condition. It sucks but I'd rather they be safe. :frown2: They told us starting today we have to get screened and our temps checked prior to entering the building. I have horrible allergies right now and I sound horribly sick. The woman guarding the entrance yesterday told me I might not make it in the building next time if I sound the same. Good...send me home to quarantine for a few weeks please!!! :)



On the TP front I have enough, but a few coworkers are running low. My cousin, who is a FritoLay delivery man, bought a huge case for them to share at BJ's yesterday before they opened. They'll be so happy!! He said the store opens for an hour for the senior citizens only and every time BJ's refills the shelves the seniors buy it all up before the regular customers can get some. It's insanity. When will people realize there is enough for everyone if everyone just buys what they actually need?
Thinking of you, and all of those in your shoes! I can't imagine the pain of the new mom who has to be separated from her baby. Will the baby be tested?

In our L&D's here, they have an absolute no visitors policy. Right now, they are allowing one support person to come in with the delivering mom... the support person is not allowed to leave the hospital and come back. So they are on lock down with mom the whole time...but there is rumor that soon they will also ban support persons so only the delivering mom is allowed into the hospital. A lot of pregnant ladies around here are now looking into home birth because of the restrictions. Not sure how safe that is either in time of a pandemic?

Maryland just ordered all non-essential businesses to close, as of today. There hasn't been an official shelter-in-place order, but now all places where people would congregate outside of their homes are effectively shut down.

My job is non-essential... so in three weeks I will be laid off. I have a backlog of work issued before this all hit that will last me three weeks, and I can do it all from home so it doesn't matter that my office is physically closed. When that work dries up, I'm on unemployment. Unemployment benefits here max out at less than 1/3rd my weekly pay. I don't know how we will get by, truthfully. I know there are a lot of other people out there in the same boat. I'm trying to remain calm.

It feels awful to be an able-bodied person sitting around unable to help when people such as yourself are on the front lines. I have been looking for a way to help- besides things like sewing masks. I have zero medical training, but I wonder if they could train me to just do something simple like man the front desk or basic intake of patients? Heck, I'm even looking at amazon and the grocery stores. I'd rather be doing something. I feel like I can't sit here and watch my job go away and do nothing about it.

Here in MD they announced that they are turning the Baltimore convention center and associated hotels into hospitals... as well as a few other hotels/conference centers around the state. Where are they going to get nurses and doctors for all of these places?!

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It would be helpful if people stopped viewing the curtailment of activities and layoffs as the equivalent of the 1929 stock market crash - there is no need to jump off buildings or feed your older relatives to the lions.

During WWII, citizens were rationed on certain goods and the government took control of some commodities and industries that were necessary for the war effort. I choose to view our current situation as similar to war time. It won't last forever (it'll just feel like it).

So, let's suck it up and do our part to preserve our country. We can help our neighbors if we have the means and we can follow the guidelines issued by the medical community and community leaders. It's all we can do.
 

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It would be helpful if people stopped viewing the curtailment of activities and layoffs as the equivalent of the 1929 stock market crash - there is no need to jump off buildings or feed your older relatives to the lions.

During WWII, citizens were rationed on certain goods and the government took control of some commodities and industries that were necessary for the war effort. I choose to view our current situation as similar to war time. It won't last forever (it'll just feel like it).

So, let's suck it up and do our part to preserve our country. We can help our neighbors if we have the means and we can follow the guidelines issued by the medical community and community leaders. It's all we can do.
They sure did. My old neighbor told me they took some of his cows.
They thought all they Left him was his milk cow, but they new they were in the area and a buddy took a few to river bottom for a few days. :laugh:
 

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It would be helpful if people stopped viewing the curtailment of activities and layoffs as the equivalent of the 1929 stock market crash - there is no need to jump off buildings or feed your older relatives to the lions.



During WWII, citizens were rationed on certain goods and the government took control of some commodities and industries that were necessary for the war effort. I choose to view our current situation as similar to war time. It won't last forever (it'll just feel like it).



So, let's suck it up and do our part to preserve our country. We can help our neighbors if we have the means and we can follow the guidelines issued by the medical community and community leaders. It's all we can do.


They sacrificed without complaint, fear, the internet or their smart phones. We are too soft.


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