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One needs to understand underlying conditions are more than just the elderly, it also goes to those with DM2, high blood pressure, heart disease and number of respiratory conditions. Unfortunately for the American society this is about 40% of the entire population. So, one has to be cautious about transposing how the virus will affect on society vs another. We have to consider so many factors.
Is this what the data shows, or are we still in the ''novel'' phase of understanding?
 

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@OnTheFly

If I am following you, you are suggesting that anyone over the age of 50 should self quarantine until we develop herd immunity through a vaccine? Do i read you correctly? Hmm, wonder if that would affect the economy in any negative fashion.

It is better if we get a handle on the explosive infection levels through mitigation (n the short term), slowly re-open the economy and then put out the flare up infections through testing and tracing along with modifications, such as continued physical distancing and the wearing of masks as well as vigilant hygiene.
 

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Is this what the data shows, or are we still in the ''novel'' phase of understanding?
the data shows this as does our understanding of the host for this virus. To be a host, a cell must have present the ACE-2 receptor. When we consider the cells that have this receptor (i.e., the host cells), we are talking about lower respiratory cells and cardiovascular cells (type-2 pneumocytes and endothelial cells).

So, we know a lot more than what we knew three months ago, but yes there are still things about this particular virus yet to understand.
 

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One thing that is not novel is the basis for our understanding of practically all viruses that spread via the respiratory system... they tend to following waxing and waning trends. They favor certain environment conditions over others. Saliva droplets travel further during cooler/dryer conditions (i.e., cold and flu season - fall and winter) and not quite as far in the warmer/humid conditions (spring and summer). Also in the dryer conditions, the mucus membranes of our respiratory system changes the consistency of the mucus we produce and also leads to cracks in the membrane. Both of these events leads to vulnerabilities that these viruses can exploit for more efficient infections.

As such we may see a drop in the infection of this virus through summer but can expect another wave of infections in the Fall. If we are able to get a handle on the infection rates now and put in place trace testing come fall, we will be in better place. Thus may not need to shutdown the economy again and just deal with outbreaks as they come. It will still mean some folks may have to quarantine for a time but not the entire county, state and country.

The only other way is to reach herd immunity (actively or passively). Active herd immunity would mean we reach 70%+ infection rates. This would mean up to 10% of the population may require direct medical intervention. These numbers would be staggering and unsustainable for most medical facilities. Or, we could continue to be vigilant about putting out the infection flares up through the methods I mentioned until we have a vaccine (passive immunity).
 

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If we keep the cases low, it follows that the death rate will also be lower. Our mitigation of the pandemic has helped in keeping the cases low and thus the death rate low. If we had done nothing it is hard to determine what would have be the result.
Herd immunity be damned.....
 

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Herd immunity be damned.....
I don‘t know what this declarative statement means. It is the only way to be completely on the other side of this, herd immunity. If it were just the influenza or the common cold, it would not be necessary. If it is something like small pox, measles, mumps, etc or a novel virus that taxes our health care facilities, then there really is no other choice but to reach herd immunity either actively or passively. Just that the former way of herd immunity comes at a high cost (not necessary in deaths but in taxing our health care system).

In the meantime we can mitigate followed by containment of the spread of infection.
 

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I don't understand people who don't understand the difference between a known, familiar virus, and a NEW one. The former we have tools for. The latter....we're starting from scratch with a lot of mystery.

Of COURSE the latter is more dangerous. Duh
 

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If I am following you, you are suggesting that anyone over the age of 50 should self quarantine until we develop herd immunity through a vaccine? Do i read you correctly? Hmm, wonder if that would affect the economy in any negative fashion.
No, not even remotely what I'm suggesting.

We knew, from what was happening in Italy and Spain, very early on that the vast majority of people dying from covid were the very elderly, and so after that time-wise, the elderly with multiple serious other diseases.

Those who we knew to be most at risk should have been isolated/quarantined.

Instead we succumbed to fear, both from our so-called experts and media.
 

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No, not even remotely what I'm suggesting.

We knew, from what was happening in Italy and Spain, very early on that the vast majority of people dying from covid were the very elderly, and so after that time-wise, the elderly with multiple serious other diseases.

Those who we knew to be most at risk should have been isolated/quarantined.

Instead we succumbed to fear, both from our so-called experts and media.
What we knew early on from what was happening in China, S. Korea, Singapore, Italy, Spain is that this was a very contagious disease, an R0 of about 3. We also understood that it has the potential to cause some serious lower respiratory problems, like pneumonia. There were more than just the elderly that succumbed to the illness in all of those locations. While the elderly were hit hard, so were folks with underlying conditions such as heart disease, high blood pressure, DM2 and a host of respiratory issues.

But, if you could suggests how we quarantine all of those individuals, I think folks would have listened. They did do an interesting mitigation in Singapore and it worked out well. That is until flights starting arriving again from foreign locales.

What they, Singapore, did was lock people who tested positive in a large facility (regardless of their symptoms) for up to three weeks. No one in and no one out. Essentially made them prisoners based on their diagnosis. So, it was unnecessary to even worry about the vulnerable. They simply contained the virus vectors, imprisoned them. I just don’t know how well this would have gone over in this country. That is imprison everyone who test positive (regardless of symptoms). As for quarantine of those who are vulnerable, this would include more than just those in nursing homes, but a lot of working class folks as well. How long would we have to quarantine these vulnerable folks (possible 30-40% of the US population)? Well, until we find a vaccine.

On the flip side, we could just shut things down till the levels of infection are mitigated. Re-open the economy while continually trace testing for outbreaks, i.e., containment. We can continue to do this containment until we have a deployable vaccine for herd immunity.

I am not an economist, but I am part of the economy and have suffered some aspects to its downturn. So, no, I would not have favored shutting everything down if there were another way. It just is not practical or possible to either, lock everyone up who test positive and/or completely isolate everyone who is at highest risk for this virus. The latter would be a very high number of folks.
 

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Significant changes, in 3 weeks? How so?
Infections change daily as do death from this virus. A single snapshot is not as important as are statistical trends. And, in some areas (like where I live) the trends are flattening. In other areas not so much.
 

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If we keep the cases low, it follows that the death rate will also be lower. Our mitigation of the pandemic has helped in keeping the cases low and thus the death rate low. If we had done nothing it is hard to determine what would have be the result.
The original narrative was to flatten the curve, not to keep cases low over all. Something is always changing. Can you prove that the mitigation is responsible for low cases, I certainly don’t buy it.

So how is herd immunity reached with low or no cases?
 

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Infections change daily as do death from this virus. A single snapshot is not as important as are statistical trends. And, in some areas (like where I live) the trends are flattening. In other areas not so much.
Not sure what you’re getting at. The map shows the covid deaths split into thirds for the States up to May 8th. Has that changed significantly? If so, how?
 

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The original narrative was to flatten the curve, not to keep cases low over all. Something is always changing. Can you prove that the mitigation is responsible for low cases, I certainly don’t buy it.

So how is herd immunity reached with low or no cases?
Keeping cases low is consistent with flattening the curve. They happen at nearly the same time, so this is not a changing of the goal post.

You can't prove a negative experiment, so I don’t know how to answer the your initial question.

Herd immunity is not reached until we either have 70%+ infected or we have a deployable vaccination. You have to think of lockdown mitigation like putting out a large forest fire. After you put out the large “blaze” of infections, you follow up with containment. Containment involves trace testing as the economy opens back up.
 

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Not sure what you’re getting at. The map shows the covid deaths split into thirds for the States up to May 8th. Has that changed significantly? If so, how?
Take a look at the Johns Hopkins map, it provides better detail and does so right down the to county levels in each state.
 
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