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That still happened. It just wasn't hundreds of thousands of people, just tens of thousands, which still overwhelmed their health systems. So they still needed all those temp hospitals and morgues.

They are erecting morgue tents in NYC now.
I’m wondering about his modeling, and if he changed it under pressure.

Hospitals where the oldest works is starting to see increases in patients with the symptoms needing treatment.
 

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I’m wondering about his modeling, and if he changed it under pressure.

Hospitals where the oldest works is starting to see increases in patients with the symptoms needing treatment.
It is still going to overwhelm our health system. It just will possibly not be hundreds of thousands needing hospital care, maybe just tens of thousands or even even less. So at those lower numbers, it is still a catastrophe for the health care workers and the patients.
 

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This is a very important point that some are talking about. Many of those over 80 who are dying from COVID-19 are at death's door before they came down with it. I think this fact should be included in the numbers.

“He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. — more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case [because] they were so old and sick,” he wrote.​
 

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My particular Central Texas Church announced that they are already fully prepared to video stream services until at least summertime, and even beyond.

They, along with a lot of Texas churches, and much unlike the President, are in absolutely no rush to start back up with live services until the proverbial coast is clear!
Please leave the politics out of this thread.
 

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There are reports that China now has about 20 million fewer cellphone accounts. Some are claiming that this represents the real number that died from COVID-19 in China over the last few months.

Were workers in China paid when they were in lock-down? If not, maybe that number so high because people could no longer afford their cell service.

I wonder.
 

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There are reports that China now has about 20 million fewer cellphone accounts. Some are claiming that this represents the real number that died from COVID-19 in China over the last few months.

Were workers in China paid when they were in lock-down? If not, maybe that number so high because people could no longer afford their cell service.

I wonder.
But they are communist, right? So, maybe they had to ration their commie phones...
 

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But they are communist, right? So, maybe they had to ration their commie phones...
My understanding is that China wants all their people to have cell phones. It helps with them tracking everyone and controlling people.
 

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There are reports that China now has about 20 million fewer cellphone accounts. Some are claiming that this represents the real number that died from COVID-19 in China over the last few months.

Were workers in China paid when they were in lock-down? If not, maybe that number so high because people could no longer afford their cell service.

I wonder.
I watched an interview of an American living there married to a woman from their.
About a month ago.
Didn’t mention cellphones but he did say payments for rent and most other things were suspended until further notice.

Since they do want all citizens having cell phones I would assume they would also fall in that category.
 

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My understanding is that China wants all their people to have cell phones. It helps with them tracking everyone and controlling people.
Depends on whether it was more important to track them or limit communication, I think.

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My understanding is that China wants all their people to have cell phones. It helps with them tracking everyone and controlling people.
I think this is also how they tracked everyone who tested positive, then forced quarantine on them and anyone they had been in contact with.
 

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So the Sky isn’t falling after all, imagine that.

From the link:


“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.

“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”
 

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What Neil Ferguson said was that it would not be as bad if predicted if we took action to blunt the curve, that part seems to be missing.

This is what all epidemiologist will tell you, take no action and you end up with disastrous consequences. Take action and it is predictable that we can weather this much better and faster than the models suggests. This is why we are doing what we are doing.

So, let’s be clear his original mathematical models were based on no actions taken. If we ease them now, those models will be revised again.

People sometimes report on what they want to see not always reality.

In this type of crisis if it seems like we over reacted then we probably did it right.

Read the original statements not filtered ones.


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What Neil Ferguson said was that it would not be as bad if predicted if we took action to blunt the curve, that part seems to be missing.

This is what all epidemiologist will tell you, take no action and you end up with disastrous consequences. Take action and it is predictable that we can weather this much better and faster than the models suggests. This is why we are doing what we are doing.

So, let’s be clear his original mathematical models were based on no actions taken. If we ease them now, those models will be revised again.

People sometimes report on what they want to see not always reality.

In this type of crisis if it seems like we over reacted then we probably did it right.

Read the original statements not filtered ones.


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Sounds like it says that he miscalculated how many were already infected when he originally made the model and so the mortality rate was way to high.

Now he revised the numbers to account for a higher infection rate and so the mortality rate has been lowered. What I read, neither scenario took into account any lockdowns or quarantines. However, I may have read it wrong.
 

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Sounds like it says that he miscalculated how many were already infected when he originally made the model and so the mortality rate was way to high.

Now he revised the numbers to account for a higher infection rate and so the mortality rate has been lowered. What I read, neither scenario took into account any lockdowns or quarantines. However, I may have read it wrong.


That is still the wrong interpretation of what he said.

R0 does not change, but the opportunity for infection changes based on the actions we take, lockdowns. His numbers are revised based on action taken. If we ease up too soon, model will change again.

If I can find what he originally wrote I will put it up.

Mortality rate is lower in places that got ahead of the virus (took early action).


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Here is a way to view it:

Take Italy, Germany and the US.

In the early phases of the outbreak in China, Germany shutdown all flights from China and sustained it for a long time

The US stopped flights coming in from China midway through the outbreak but already had some proxy travelers arrive, some through Canada.

Italy did not stop any travel from China until parts of China were in complete lockdown

Germany cancelled all large gatherings starting in mid February, Italy allowed large gathering celebrations up to about early March. The US was spotty, some venues cancelled others not, not Mardi Gras.

What we see is an infection rate lower in Germany and a death rate around 0.5%. We see a very high infection rate in Italy and death rate around 10%. In the US you see spotty areas where the infection rate is high and in those areas death rate around 3.4%.

Should we ease up lockdowns (stay in place) in the US? Depends on where you are and who is traveling into that area. You have to follow the data (viral timeline) and not a human timeline.


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It is important to understand the full context of what epidemiologist are saying. One thing they will always say is that if it feels like we over reacted then we did the right thing.


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That is still the wrong interpretation of what he said.

R0 does not change, but the opportunity for infection changes based on the actions we take, lockdowns. His numbers are revised based on action taken. If we ease up too soon, model will change again.

If I can find what he originally wrote I will put it up.

Mortality rate is lower in places that got ahead of the virus (took early action).


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I wonder what Oklahoma will be like.

Until 10-14 days ago state didn’t allow tests despite symptoms unless they had recently traveled to a location having community spread.

Death rate last night for the state was 3.6%.

Doubtful if those they refused tests early on were eventually tested.

They still doodling on action.
 

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I wonder what Oklahoma will be like.



Until 10-14 days ago state didn’t allow tests despite symptoms unless they had recently traveled to a location having community spread.



Death rate last night for the state was 3.6%.



Doubtful if those they refused tests early on were eventually tested.



They still doodling on action.


I don’t know, sometime you can track infections to specific large gatherings. For instance, 40 patients in Connecticut were tracked to a large bar mitzvah gathering.

Hence easing stay in place too soon and we end up with a second curve we have to blunt.


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